hbky(600985) 德邦证券·2024-04-28 10:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control despite a decline in coal production and sales, with a focus on future growth opportunities [4] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and capacity expansions, which will contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.363 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, and a net profit of 1.59 billion, down 24.7% [4] - The coal business saw a production volume of 5.2364 million tons, a decrease of 7.73%, and sales volume of 4.0261 million tons, down 21.08% [4] - The average selling price of coal was 1,178 yuan per ton, down 15.1%, while the cost per ton was 593 yuan, down 16.92% [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company has several projects in progress, including the Inner Mongolia Taoqitu coal mine expected to start production by the end of 2025 with a designed capacity of 8 million tons per year [4] - The company is also advancing its methanol comprehensive utilization project, which is expected to begin production in June 2024 with a capacity of 600,000 tons per year [4] - A new power generation project in Huai Bei City is planned, with an estimated total investment of 5.261 billion, projected to generate an average annual profit of 196 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 76.6 billion, 81.5 billion, and 86.9 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 6.4 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.0 billion [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.39, 2.42, and 2.60 for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.49, 7.37, and 6.87 [5][6]