HEGC(000883) 华源证券·2024-04-28 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and valuation recovery [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2023, achieving 1.75 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year growth, and a 71% increase in net profit after deducting non-recurring items [4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 780 million yuan, representing a 151% year-on-year increase, driven by favorable water conditions and declining coal prices [4][5]. - The company plans to maintain a minimum cash dividend payout of 30% of net profit for the 2024-2026 period, which is an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the previous cycle [4]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 18.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year, primarily due to lower coal sales prices [4]. - The company’s total installed capacity reached 15.67 million kilowatts by the end of 2023, with significant contributions from hydropower, thermal power, and renewable energy sources [5]. - The average selling prices for various energy sources in 2023 were as follows: hydropower (domestic) at 0.3227 yuan/kWh, thermal power at 0.4314 yuan/kWh, and wind power at 0.5113 yuan/kWh [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2024 to be 3.1 billion yuan, up from a previous estimate of 2.89 billion yuan, with further increases expected in 2025 and 2026 [4][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 for 2024, 11 for 2025, and 10 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][6].