CSSC Holdings(SH:600150) Guohai Securities·2024-04-28 16:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Shipbuilding [1][7][9] Core Views - The company has turned positive in its non-recurring net profit, with a significant increase in performance expected in 2024, marking it as a year of performance elasticity verification [3][5][7] - High-value orders are beginning to be delivered, with a notable increase in the proportion of high-value ship types being delivered in 2024 [3][5] - The company is well-positioned in the market with a full order book extending to 2027-2028, benefiting from the ongoing green shipbuilding trend [4][5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1614.73%, while the non-recurring net profit was -291 million yuan [5][7] - For Q1 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 401 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 821.12%, with a non-recurring net profit of 338 million yuan, compared to -36 million yuan in the same period last year [5][7] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 84.051 billion yuan, 93.212 billion yuan, and 105.061 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.903 billion yuan, 9.246 billion yuan, and 12.757 billion yuan [7][8][9] Market Position and Trends - The company is the largest and most technologically advanced shipbuilding company in China, with a comprehensive product structure [7][9] - The new ship price index has shown resilience, increasing by 10.39% despite a 32.85% decline in shipping rates, indicating strong demand for new orders [4][7] - The proportion of container ships, which are higher in value, is expected to increase from 34.6% in 2023 to 55.4% in 2024, while the share of lower-value bulk carriers is projected to decrease [3][4]