KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Soochow Securities·2024-04-29 01:32Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported stable sales in Q1 2024, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 457.8 billion yuan and 240.65 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 18.1% and 15.7% [2] - The company's revenue growth momentum remained strong, with fine-tuned channel structure adjustments [2] - The company's long-term value proposition remains intact, supported by its strong brand premium and multi-dimensional consumption scenarios [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024Q1 was 457.8 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 240.65 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from Moutai liquor increased by 17.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024, while revenue from series liquor grew by 18.4% [2] - Direct sales channels, including iMoutai, saw revenue growth of 9.0% and 8.3%, respectively, reflecting the company's efforts to stabilize product pricing [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q1 2024 was 54.4%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased operating taxes and sales expenses [5] Product and Channel Analysis - Moutai liquor revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of non-standard product releases [2] - Series liquor revenue increased by 18.4% year-on-year, driven by the new Hanjiang product and controlled growth of the 1935 product [2] - Direct sales channels, including iMoutai, contributed to revenue growth, with the company adjusting channel releases to stabilize pricing [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to 1,738.82 billion yuan in 2024, 1,996.26 billion yuan in 2025, and 2,275.85 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.49%, 14.81%, and 14.01%, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 871.96 billion yuan in 2024, 1,004.27 billion yuan in 2025, and 1,155.00 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.68%, 15.17%, and 15.01%, respectively [1] - EPS is projected to be 69.41 yuan in 2024, 79.95 yuan in 2025, and 91.94 yuan in 2026 [1] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 34.24x for 2022, 28.73x for 2023, 24.63x for 2024, 21.38x for 2025, and 18.59x for 2026 [1] - The P/B ratio is 8.96x, with a market capitalization of 2,147,382.21 million yuan [9] Strategic Outlook - The company has a rich toolbox for sales regulation, with a focus on maintaining the price of its core product, Feitian Moutai [3] - Long-term growth is supported by the company's strong brand premium and multi-dimensional consumption scenarios, with potential for better demand and supply optimization [3] - The company's production expansion is expected to provide more flexibility in adjusting volume and pricing in the medium term [6]