ZHIFEI-BIOL(300122) 平安证券·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [2][8] Core Views - HPV vaccine sales drove growth in 2023, with 9-valent HPV vaccine sales increasing significantly [5] - The company's 2023 revenue reached 52.918 billion yuan (+38.30%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.070 billion yuan (+7.04%) [4] - In Q1 2024, revenue was 11.396 billion yuan (+2.00%), but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 28.26% to 1.458 billion yuan [4] - The company's shingles vaccine (GSK) is expected to contribute incremental growth starting from Q2 2024, with minimum annual procurement amounts of 3.440 billion, 6.880 billion, and 10.320 billion yuan over the next three years [6][8] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2023 revenue: 52.918 billion yuan (+38.30%) [4] - 2023 net profit: 8.070 billion yuan (+7.04%) [4] - 2024 Q1 revenue: 11.396 billion yuan (+2.00%) [4] - 2024 Q1 net profit: 1.458 billion yuan (-28.26%) [4] Product Performance - 2023 self-developed products revenue: 1.028 billion yuan (-68.70%), with a gross margin of 89.38% (+2.90pct) [5] - 2023 agency products revenue: 51.885 billion yuan (+48.35%), with a gross margin of 25.68% (-2.98pct) [5] - 9-valent HPV vaccine sales increased significantly, with 36.55 million doses issued (+136.16%) [5] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue projections: 60.606 billion, 70.633 billion, and 76.505 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit projections: 9.616 billion, 11.650 billion, and 13.357 billion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 EPS projections: 4.02, 4.87, and 5.58 yuan [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024 P/E: 8.7x [7] - 2024 P/B: 2.0x [7] - 2024 EV/EBITDA: 7.1x [9]