MANGO(300413) 德邦证券·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mango Excellent Media (300413.SZ) [1] Core Views - The advertising revenue has stabilized, and the platform has significant potential for international expansion [1][5] - The company achieved total revenue of 14.628 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, with a net profit of 3.556 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 90.73% [2][5] - The company is expected to maintain growth in its core business, with a rich content pipeline and a recovery in advertising revenue [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative decline of 46% compared to the CSI 300 index as of April 2023, with absolute performance of -4.60% in August 2023 [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.21%, while net profit was 472 million yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year due to changes in corporate income tax policy [2][5] - The company expects revenues of 16.222 billion yuan, 17.693 billion yuan, and 19.009 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 2.003 billion yuan, 2.300 billion yuan, and 2.557 billion yuan [5][7] Content and Programming - The company has a robust lineup of content, with over 80 films and series planned for 2024, including popular titles and a focus on short dramas [3][4] - The "Big Mango Plan" aims to produce 200 vertical screen short dramas in 2024, enhancing the company's content offerings [3] Membership and Advertising - Membership revenue reached 4.315 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.23%, with a total of 66.53 million effective members [4] - Advertising revenue was 3.532 billion yuan in 2023, down 11.57% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery with a 15.95% increase in Q4 [4] International Expansion - The Mango TV international app has been downloaded over 140 million times and is set to expand its user base globally, particularly in Southeast Asia [5] - The company has initiated a "User Doubling Plan" to enhance international content distribution and user experience [5] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2024 primarily due to tax impacts, but operational performance remains strong [5] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 34.6% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 12% [7]