Winner Medical(SZ:300888) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-29 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price range of 34.00 - 36.00 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue due to the normalization of demand for pandemic-related products, with a 27.8% year-on-year decrease in 2023, resulting in total revenue of 8.12 billion CNY [1][7]. - The medical segment saw a 47% drop in revenue to 3.86 billion CNY, primarily due to an 81% decrease in pandemic-related product sales, while non-pandemic products grew by double digits [1][23]. - The consumer goods segment grew by 6% to 4.26 billion CNY, driven by an increase in offline store numbers and improved store efficiency [1][24]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 49.0%, with medical and consumer goods margins changing by -4 and +4 percentage points, respectively [1][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 64.8% to 580 million CNY, with a net profit margin decrease of 7 percentage points to 7.7% [1][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 8.12 billion CNY, down 27.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million CNY, down 64.8% [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2024 continued to show a decline in revenue, down 19% to 1.91 billion CNY, with medical revenue decreasing by 37% and consumer goods revenue increasing by 7% [2][17]. - The gross margin for the first quarter of 2024 was 47.6%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17]. Business Segments - Medical Segment: Revenue decreased by 47% to 3.86 billion CNY in 2023, with pandemic-related products down 81% to 910 million CNY, while non-pandemic products grew by approximately 17% [1][23]. - Consumer Goods Segment: Revenue increased by 6% to 4.26 billion CNY, with e-commerce growth at 1.2% and offline stores growing by 18.7% [1][24]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin improved to 49.0%, with medical goods margin decreasing to 40.4% and consumer goods margin increasing to 56.9% [1][13][24]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 7.7%, down from the previous year, reflecting the impact of reduced sales and increased fixed costs [1][7]. Future Outlook - The company expects to open approximately 100 new stores in 2024, focusing on enhancing profitability through strategic adjustments [2][27]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 800 million, 940 million, and 1.06 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 37.1%, 18.5%, and 12.3% respectively [2][27].