24Q1业绩稳健，静待利润弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.00 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by 10% to 15% over the next 12 months [26][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.49 billion CNY in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.72 billion CNY, up 3.93% year-on-year. The revenue decline is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [25][5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in profit margins due to a decrease in procurement costs for key ingredients, with expectations for improved gross margins in 2024 [25][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 2548 - 2023A: 2450 - 2024E: 2653 - 2025E: 2915 - 2026E: 3207 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -3.86%, 2024E: 8.30%, 2025E: 9.86%, 2026E: 10.03% [3][5]. - Net Profit (CNY million): - 2022A: 899 - 2023A: 827 - 2024E: 923 - 2025E: 1020 - 2026E: 1124 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -8.04%, 2024E: 11.69%, 2025E: 10.51%, 2026E: 10.15% [3][5]. - EPS (CNY/share): - 2022A: 1.01 - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.80 - 2025E: 0.88 - 2026E: 0.97 [3][5]. - P/E Ratio: - 2024E: 16.27 - 2025E: 14.73 - 2026E: 13.37 [3][5]. - ROE (%): - 2023A: 10.03% - 2024E: 10.53% - 2025E: 10.99% - 2026E: 11.45% [3][5]. - EV/EBITDA: - 2024E: 9.80 - 2025E: 9.03 - 2026E: 7.96 [3][5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights a net profit margin of 36.29% in Q1 2024, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost management and reduced sales expenses [25][5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 52.11%, down 4.17 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by high inventory costs and changes in product mix [25][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from lower procurement costs for key ingredients, with a projected cost of 800 CNY per ton for green vegetables starting from May 2024, which is anticipated to enhance profit margins [25][5]. - The expansion of product channels, particularly in the restaurant sector, is expected to drive revenue growth in 2024 [25][5].