KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2024-04-29 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in Q1 2024, with total revenue reaching 46.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.065 billion yuan, up 15.73% year-on-year [4][16]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 92.61%, showing a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 51.77%, down 1.04 percentage points due to tax and expense disturbances [5]. - The company’s product and channel structure showed balanced development, with revenue from the flagship product, Moutai liquor, reaching 39.707 billion yuan, a 17.75% increase, and series liquor revenue at 5.936 billion yuan, up 18.39% [15]. - The report forecasts earnings per share of 69.70 yuan and 81.37 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25 times and 21 times [16][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2024 was 46.485 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.04% [4]. - Net profit for the same period was 24.065 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.73% increase year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin was reported at 92.61%, with a net profit margin of 51.77% [5]. Product and Channel Development - Moutai liquor revenue was 39.707 billion yuan, up 17.75%, while series liquor revenue was 5.936 billion yuan, increasing by 18.39% [15]. - The wholesale channel saw a revenue increase of 25.78%, while the direct sales channel grew by 8.49% [15]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 15% for the full year 2024 [4]. - The dual strategy of Moutai liquor and series liquor is expected to drive further growth, supported by capacity release [16].