24Q1利润率改善 静待经营好转

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15][26]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in its cream products, with a notable increase in revenue from various product categories. The UHT cream production line has generated over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue within six months, significantly boosting the cream segment's performance [2]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 17% in 2024, with projected revenues of 40.99 billion RMB, 47.73 billion RMB, and 55.03 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase significantly, reaching 2.9 billion RMB in 2024, which represents a 291% year-on-year growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 34.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%. The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 9.16 billion RMB, up 15.31% year-on-year [10]. - Revenue from different product categories in 2023 included 22.11 billion RMB from frozen baked goods, 6.54 billion RMB from cream, and 2.33 billion RMB from sauces, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +23.93%, +27.65%, and +18.12% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 31.39%, with a slight increase to 32.59% in Q1 2024, attributed to improved capacity utilization and procurement optimization [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 0.73 billion RMB, down 49.21% year-on-year, but the first quarter of 2024 showed a recovery with a net profit of 0.77 billion RMB, up 53.96% year-on-year [10]. Cost Management - The company has maintained stable gross margins while optimizing its cost structure. The selling expense ratio decreased from 13.54% in 2023 to 12.10% in Q1 2024, indicating effective cost management [2]. - The management expense ratio also saw a decrease from 9.56% in 2023 to 6.57% in Q1 2024, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its reform efforts, focusing on product structure, capacity utilization, and operational efficiency. The forecast for net profit growth is optimistic, with expected EPS of 1.7, 2.0, and 2.3 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][10].