来水偏枯影响电量，枯水期涨价持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.47, 0.58, and 0.67 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 17x, and 14x [1][3]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 23.46 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.6% to 7.64 billion RMB. For Q1 2024, revenue rose by 3.6% to 4.42 billion RMB, and net profit increased by 17.3% to 1.07 billion RMB [1]. - The company faced challenges in power generation due to reduced water inflow and increased renewable energy installations, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in power generation of 4.0% in 2023 and 7.2% in Q1 2024. However, the average on-grid electricity price for hydropower increased by 4.2% in 2023, benefiting revenue despite lower generation [1][3]. - Significant capital expenditures in 2023 totaled 28.49 billion RMB, primarily due to acquisitions and construction projects, which are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures and enhance future dividend potential [1][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion RMB in 2023, with a net profit of 7.64 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-on-year. Q1 2024 figures show a revenue of 4.42 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.07 billion RMB, marking increases of 3.6% and 17.3% respectively [1][3]. Operational Analysis - Power generation was impacted by reduced water inflow, with hydropower generation down 5.2% in 2023. The company added 1.313 million kW of renewable energy capacity, achieving a 243.8% increase in generation from renewables [1][3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower rose to 0.219 RMB/kWh in 2023, while the market price for clean energy exceeded 0.29 RMB/kWh in early 2024, supporting revenue growth despite lower generation volumes [1][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.49 billion RMB, 10.39 billion RMB, and 12.02 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.58, and 0.67 [1][3].