公司季报点评:Q1业绩表现亮眼,现金流高速增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 46.485 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.065 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year [13]. - The revenue growth is attributed to the price increase of Feitian Moutai and the expansion of non-standard products, with Moutai liquor revenue growing by 17.7% to 39.707 billion yuan [13]. - The company launched the "Spring Series Cultural Products" and expanded its non-standard product matrix, contributing to strong cash flow performance with operating cash flow increasing by 75.2% year-on-year [13]. - The wholesale channel revenue increased by 25.8% to 26.324 billion yuan, benefiting from the price adjustment of Feitian Moutai [14]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 70.32, 81.45, and 94.35 yuan per share, respectively, and assigns a valuation range of 1758.10 to 2109.72 yuan based on a PE ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 46.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit of 24.065 billion yuan, up 15.7% [13]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor grew by 17.7% to 39.707 billion yuan, while series liquor revenue increased by 18.4% to 5.936 billion yuan [13]. - The company’s cash flow performance was strong, with sales receipts and operating cash flow increasing by 29.3% and 75.2% year-on-year, respectively [13]. Revenue Channels - The wholesale channel revenue increased by 25.8% to 26.324 billion yuan, primarily due to the price increase of Feitian Moutai [14]. - Direct sales channel revenue grew by 8.5% to 19.319 billion yuan, with the i Moutai platform achieving a non-tax revenue of 5.343 billion yuan, up 9.0% [14]. Profitability and Forecast - The report indicates a stable gross margin of 92.7% and a net profit margin of 51.8%, despite a slight year-on-year decrease due to tax and additional charges [14]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 70.32, 81.45, and 94.35 yuan per share, with a reasonable valuation range of 1758.10 to 2109.72 yuan based on a PE ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [14].