Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiumaojiu International (9922 HK) with a target price of HK$6.10, representing a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HK$4.79 [1][2][5]. Core Views - Jiumaojiu's short-term performance is constrained by a high base, but steady growth is expected in the future. The company is exploring new demand through brand transformation, which requires further observation [4][5]. - The target price has been adjusted downwards by 13% from HK$7.00 to HK$6.10, corresponding to a 15x P/E ratio for 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, same-store sales for the brand "Tai Er" declined by 13.9% year-on-year, with a table turnover rate dropping to 3.9 times per day. However, the decline is expected to narrow as the base effect diminishes [4]. - The company plans to open 105 new stores in 2024, with 84 in domestic markets and 21 overseas, aiming for a total of 683 stores. The average customer price is projected to decrease slightly by 1.0% to RMB 74.3 [4][5]. - Revenue from restaurant operations is expected to grow by 14.5% year-on-year to RMB 5.12 billion in 2024 [4]. Brand Development - The "Song" brand saw a 34.8% decline in same-store sales in Q1 2024, indicating that existing demand has been largely met. The brand is focusing on enhancing its menu and appealing to younger consumers [4]. - The "Song" brand is expected to open 30 new stores in 2024, with revenue projected to increase by 32.0% year-on-year to RMB 1.06 billion [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been reduced by 7.1%, 10.7%, and 12.4% to RMB 69.5 billion, RMB 80.3 billion, and RMB 90.3 billion respectively. Net profit estimates have also been lowered by 13.1%, 18.1%, and 19.6% to RMB 5.3 billion, RMB 6.1 billion, and RMB 6.9 billion [5][6]. - The report projects a market capitalization range of HK$61 billion to HK$107 billion based on a P/E ratio of 12-16x for 2024, with the current market cap at HK$69 billion [5].
太二短期受制于高基数，怂变革成效有待观察