周期复苏叠加新品放量，业绩持续超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company SanHuan Group (300408) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous performance exceeding expectations due to the cyclical recovery and the ramp-up of new products [1] - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.58 billion yuan, up 5.1% [2] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant revenue increase of 35.6% year-on-year, reaching 1.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 67.9% [2] - The first quarter of 2024 reported a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan, a 31.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 430 million yuan, up 35.3% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue growth in 2023 was primarily driven by the recovery in consumer electronics demand, with electronic components and materials revenue reaching 2.20 billion yuan, a 50.3% increase [2] - Communication components revenue declined by 19.2% to 1.99 billion yuan, but signs of recovery have begun to emerge [2] - Other business segments generated 1.43 billion yuan, up 28.5%, mainly due to rapid growth in fuel cell diaphragm boards and resistor pastes [2] - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 39.83%, a decrease of 4.27 percentage points from the previous year, but improved to 40.14% in Q1 2024 [2] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to capture significant market share in the MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) sector, which has a global market size exceeding 100 billion yuan [3] - The company is actively exploring vertical integration in ceramic materials and core processes, with breakthroughs in high-capacity, automotive-grade, and small-sized products [3] - There is substantial potential for domestic substitution in the market, and the company is expanding into new product areas driven by AI, including high-speed optical communication packaging and semiconductor components [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 estimates net profits of 2.07 billion, 2.62 billion, and 3.12 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.2, 19.1, and 16.0 [5][6] - Revenue projections for the same period are 7.18 billion, 8.86 billion, and 10.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4%, 23.3%, and 20.1% [6]