KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Orient Securities·2024-04-29 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected return that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 15% [6][12][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 457.8 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 240.7 billion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year [22]. - The sales of Moutai and series wines continue to grow significantly, with Moutai wine generating 397.1 billion yuan in revenue (up 17.7% year-on-year) and series wines achieving 59.4 billion yuan (up 18.4% year-on-year) [22]. - The report highlights that the recent decline in wholesale prices is a short-term fluctuation and does not alter the long-term investment value of the company [22]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (Million Yuan): - 2022: 124,100 - 2023: 147,694 - 2024E: 177,415 - 2025E: 203,043 - 2026E: 229,463 - Year-on-year growth rates: 16.9%, 19.0%, 20.1%, 14.4%, 13.0% [2][15]. - Operating Profit (Million Yuan): - 2022: 87,880 - 2023: 103,709 - 2024E: 121,755 - 2025E: 139,882 - 2026E: 159,070 - Year-on-year growth rates: 17.6%, 18.0%, 17.4%, 14.9%, 13.7% [2][15]. - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (Million Yuan): - 2022: 62,717 - 2023: 74,734 - 2024E: 88,069 - 2025E: 101,175 - 2026E: 115,049 - Year-on-year growth rates: 19.6%, 19.2%, 17.8%, 14.9%, 13.7% [2][15]. - Earnings Per Share (Yuan): - 2022: 49.93 - 2023: 59.49 - 2024E: 70.11 - 2025E: 80.54 - 2026E: 91.59 [2][15]. Valuation Metrics - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2022: 34.2 - 2023: 28.7 - 2024E: 24.4 - 2025E: 21.2 - 2026E: 18.7 [2][15]. - Price-to-Book Ratio: - 2022: 10.9 - 2023: 10.0 - 2024E: 9.0 - 2025E: 7.0 - 2026E: 5.6 [2][15].