XUEDA(SZ:000526) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-29 08:30Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [12] Core Views - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 154 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 1035.2% [2][14] - The education training service revenue reached 2.15 billion yuan in 2023, up 24.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand and a shortage of quality supply in the K12 education sector [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing high demand in the education sector, with contract liabilities increasing to 1 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2024, reflecting a 23.5% increase [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 2.213 billion yuan, a 23.1% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, which aligns with prior forecasts [2][14] - The gross margin for the education training business reached a record high of 36.4%, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [6][27] - The company’s net profit margin improved to 7.0%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][16] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit is adjusted upward to 276 million yuan for 2024 and 362 million yuan for 2025, reflecting increases of 50% and 61% respectively [17] - The report introduces a new forecast for 2026, estimating a net profit of 474 million yuan, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 29, 22, and 17 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [17][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the K12 education training sector, benefiting from a competitive landscape characterized by high demand and limited quality supply [17] - The appointment of the founder, Jin Xin, as chairman is expected to enhance the company's strategic focus and operational efficiency [2][29]