KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guotou Securities·2024-04-29 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a target price of 2,400 CNY over the next six months, reflecting a projected 34x price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 [15][28]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 457.76 billion CNY in Q1 2024, representing an 18.11% year-on-year increase, while net profit rose by 15.73% to 240.65 billion CNY [26]. - The company has set a revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, consistent with the previous year, and is expected to achieve this through various strategies including price increases and product diversification [12][15]. - The company’s gross margin remains stable, and the increase in operating tax rates has impacted net profit margins in the short term [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue growth was driven by both direct sales and wholesale channels, with direct sales contributing 53.43 billion CNY, up 8.96% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is projected to grow at rates of 17.8%, 17.0%, and 15.9% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [30]. - The net profit margin is expected to remain robust, with projections of 50.1% for 2024 and gradually increasing to 50.9% by 2026 [30]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 150.56 billion CNY in 2023 to 174.98 billion CNY in 2024, with net profit expected to rise from 74.73 billion CNY to 87.70 billion CNY in the same period [30]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 59.49 CNY in 2023 to 69.81 CNY in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [30]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized for its strong brand value and business model, which are considered rare and valuable in the market [12]. - The report highlights the company’s ability to adapt and implement reforms that enhance revenue and profit, indicating a solid operational foundation [12][15].