华新水泥2024年一季报点评：海外水泥弥补国内量价下滑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaxin Cement (600801) with a target price of 16.93 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 18.20 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2024 results were below expectations, with revenue of 7.084 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.87%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 152 million CNY, a decrease of 35.09% year-on-year [1][4]. - Domestic cement sales have declined year-on-year, while overseas cement sales have shown strong growth. The company achieved cement and clinker sales of 12.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company's gross profit margin for cement remains industry-leading, despite increased costs affecting net profit performance [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2024 was 7.084 billion CNY, up 6.87% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 152 million CNY, down 35.09% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2024 was 4.12%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Domestic cement sales have decreased, while overseas cement sales have increased by 80% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report notes that the company’s cement sales volume has been affected by increased competition and a slow recovery in the domestic engineering market [1][4]. Cost and Profitability - The average gross profit per ton of cement was 305 CNY, with a gross profit margin of 61% [1][4]. - The report indicates that the increase in costs has impacted net profit, with management expenses rising significantly [1][4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 to 1.27 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the integration strategy will help stabilize the cement business amid declining demand [1][4].