LZJT(SZ:300428) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-29 09:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance over the next 12 months [30][29]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.365 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 606 million yuan, up 22.98% year-on-year [26][29]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.967 billion yuan, a 16.49% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 274 million yuan, which is a significant 132.47% increase year-on-year [60][59]. - The growth in performance is driven by increased sales volume and improved unit profitability across its three main business segments: casting aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy wheels, and intermediate alloys [38][37]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.516 billion yuan in 2024, 33.648 billion yuan in 2025, and 38.965 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 861 million yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 1.329 billion yuan respectively [20][29]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is expected to grow from 1.38 yuan in 2024 to 2.12 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [20][29]. - Valuation Metrics: The report indicates a PE ratio of 15 for 2024, decreasing to 9 by 2026, suggesting the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [20][29]. Business Segment Analysis - Sales Volume Growth: In 2023, the sales volumes for the three main business segments were 903,500 tons for casting aluminum alloys, 21.2 million units for aluminum alloy wheels, and 76,000 tons for intermediate alloys, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 21.3%, and 2.3% respectively [38][29]. - Profitability Improvement: The unit gross profit for casting aluminum alloys increased by 8.4% to 768 yuan/ton, while aluminum alloy wheels saw a 3.8% increase to 67 yuan/unit [38][29]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on expanding production capacity and developing high-end products, which is expected to drive future growth [29][55]. - The aluminum alloy wheel segment is particularly poised to benefit from the growth in the new energy vehicle market, with a reported 331.15% increase in sales volume in 2023 [29][38].