SHCI(SH:601225) Guotou Securities·2024-04-29 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 28.25 CNY [3][7]. Core Views - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 60.03% for 2023, distributing a total cash dividend of 12.749 billion CNY [2]. - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 158.79 billion CNY in 2024, 159.17 billion CNY in 2025, and 161.40 billion CNY in 2026 [7]. - The company has a strong coal production capacity, with a production increase of 4.10% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 164 million tons [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 170.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while the net profit decreased by 39.67% to 21.24 billion CNY [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 40.45 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.65 billion CNY, down 32.69% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s coal sales volume increased by 12.60% in 2023, totaling 253 million tons, with a significant rise in trade coal sales by 29.0% [1]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The average selling price of coal decreased by 13.04% to 596.10 CNY per ton in 2023, impacting the gross profit margin [1]. - The unit cost of self-produced coal increased by 7.52% to 256.25 CNY per ton, while the unit gross profit for self-produced coal fell by 26.29% to 318.27 CNY per ton [1]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a reduction in the complete cost of raw coal by 7.14% to 296.59 CNY per ton [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures in 2024 to 2.333 billion CNY, a decrease of 48.43% compared to 2023 [2]. - The company’s debt levels are decreasing, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.01% and an interest-bearing debt ratio of 2.24% as of the end of Q1 2024 [2]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to be 21.93 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.3% [7].