分红率提升显著，业绩稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a six-month target price of 150 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 21 times [3][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its dividend payout ratio, which has increased to 70% with a proposed dividend of 46.60 CNY per 10 shares (before tax) [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 33.126 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.04%, and a net profit of 10.016 billion CNY, up 6.80% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 16.255 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.03%, and a net profit of 6.055 billion CNY, up 5.02% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 5%-10% in 2024, with projected profits of 10.672 billion CNY, 11.337 billion CNY, and 11.912 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company generated revenue of 33.126 billion CNY, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor contributing 28.54 billion CNY and 3.95 billion CNY respectively, showing growth rates of 8.8% and 20.7% [1]. - The company’s gross margin remained stable, with a slight increase in 2023 to 75.25% and a slight decrease in Q1 2024 to 76.03% [1]. - The net profit margin decreased to 30.25% in 2023 and 37.24% in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased promotional expenses during the Spring Festival [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has strong brand recognition for its core products priced above 600 CNY, and it is expected to continue expanding its market share [2]. - The company is actively developing its presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with a focus on creating model markets outside its home province [2]. - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 28.90% in 2023 and 24.26% in Q1 2024, reflecting increased advertising and promotional efforts [1]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 13 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - The estimated market capitalization is approximately 150.78 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of about 150.35 billion CNY [3].