Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Guotou Securities·2024-04-29 10:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy - A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 56.12 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 41.55 CNY [12][34]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.897 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.44%, with significant contributions from TPMS, air suspension, and sensors [1][20]. - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in its air suspension business, having secured contracts with several major automotive models [2]. - The company has developed core technologies in six categories of sensors, enhancing its domestic supply capabilities and accelerating the replacement of foreign suppliers [2]. - The production capacity for air suspension, TPMS, and sensors is set to increase with the commissioning of new facilities, which will support ongoing revenue growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.742 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.56%, driven primarily by air suspension sales [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 26.18%, down 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to one-time expenses and changes in product mix [1]. - The company’s net profit for Q4 2023 was 40 million CNY, a decline of 59.62% year-on-year, influenced by increased expenses and asset impairments [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.483 billion CNY, up 24.94% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.45% [11][20]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 520 million CNY, 650 million CNY, and 800 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [34]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.7, 14.0, and 11.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [34]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue, with projections of 7.778 billion CNY in 2024, 10.08 billion CNY in 2025, and 12.49 billion CNY in 2026 [34].