2024年一季报点评报：告

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that coal sales have improved on a month-on-month basis, and the contribution from the Marang project is expected to be significant, making the company a rare growth-oriented investment target [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million, down 73.2% year-on-year [5] - The company’s coal production in Q1 2024 was 5.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.0% [5] - The total coal sales reached 7.8 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [5] Coal Business - The report indicates a month-on-month improvement in coal sales, with premium coal sales increasing by 25.9% month-on-month and 27.3% year-on-year [5] - The company has significant future capacity expansion potential, with plans for the Marang coal mine to reach an annual capacity of 25 million tons and the eastern mining area to reach 20 million tons per year during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] Natural Gas Business - The company’s self-produced gas output in Q1 2024 was 188 million cubic meters, a month-on-month increase of 39.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [3] - Total gas sales were 1.18 billion cubic meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 46.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [3] - The company expects that with the completion of the Qidong terminal project, its natural gas turnover capacity may reach 10 million tons per year by 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 55.85 billion, 69.19 billion, and 76.57 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9%, +24%, and +11% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.03 billion, 6.40 billion, and 6.72 billion for the same years, with growth rates of -3%, +27%, and +5% respectively [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides an EPS forecast of 0.77, 0.97, and 1.02 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9.5, 7.4, and 7.1 [8][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16%, 18%, and 17% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [9]