hbky(600985) 长城证券·2024-04-29 11:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaibei Mining (600985 SH) [1][3] Core Views - Huaibei Mining's Q1 2024 performance shows marginal improvement, with expectations for continued growth in the future [1] - The company is a major coking coal producer in East China with rich resource reserves, high-quality coking coal, and significant regional advantages [2] - Huaibei Mining is deepening its business layout and promoting the integration of coal and coal chemical industry chains [3] - The company's ongoing projects are progressing steadily, with potential for further capacity expansion [3] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 17 322 billion, down 8 8% YoY and 3 0% QoQ [1] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 59 billion, down 24 70% YoY but up 36 3% QoQ [1] - Basic EPS for Q1 2024 was RMB 0 64, down 25 17% YoY [1] - Weighted average ROE for Q1 2024 was 4 16%, down 1 97 percentage points YoY [1] Coal Business - Q1 2024 coal sales volume was 4 0261 million tons, down 21 08% YoY [1] - Average coal selling price in Q1 2024 was RMB 1 176 per ton, down 15 2% YoY but up 14 7% QoQ [1] - Coal business revenue in Q1 2024 was RMB 4 737 billion, down 33 07% YoY [1] - Coal business gross margin in Q1 2024 was 49 6%, up 1 1 percentage points YoY [1] Coal Chemical Business - Q1 2024 coke production was 876 300 tons, up 0 15% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 methanol production was 90 500 tons, down 42 65% YoY [1] - Average coke selling price in Q1 2024 was RMB 2 311 81 per ton, down 13 78% YoY [1] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 74 242 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6 548 billion [3] - 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 75 515 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7 027 billion [3] - 2026E revenue is projected at RMB 77 012 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7 815 billion [3] - 2024E EPS is projected at RMB 2 43, with a PE ratio of 7 4x based on the closing price of RMB 17 87 on April 26, 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - Current market capitalization is RMB 48 12853 billion [1] - 3-month average daily trading volume is RMB 523 94 million [1] - PB ratio is projected to decrease from 1 2x in 2024E to 0 9x in 2026E [1] - EV EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 4 5x in 2024E to 3 2x in 2026E [5]