NHD(SZ:002946) EBSCN·2024-04-29 14:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady strategic progress and enhanced profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 10.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.80%, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, adjusted for a year-on-year increase of 19.27% [3][11]. - The company's gross margin improved due to declining raw milk prices and product structure optimization, with gross margins of 26.87% for the full year 2023 and 29.38% for Q1 2024 [3][11]. - The company is actively developing its D2C channels, with revenue from this segment growing over 15% year-on-year [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 revenue by product: liquid milk 9.755 billion yuan (+11.15%), milk powder 780 million yuan (+11.28%), and other products 1.153 billion yuan (-0.53%) [3]. - Revenue by region in 2023: Southwest 4.095 billion yuan (+9.98%), East China 3.020 billion yuan (+4.80%), Northwest 1.424 billion yuan (-0.97%), North China 1.109 billion yuan (+39.03%), and others 1.339 billion yuan (+14.90%) [3]. - Revenue by channel in 2023: direct sales 5.588 billion yuan (+10.22%) and distribution 4.247 billion yuan (+12.41%), with e-commerce revenue at 880 million yuan (+20.51%) [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 550 million yuan and 663 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 742 million yuan [3][12]. - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 0.64, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [3][12].