NHD(SZ:002946) Guohai Securities·2024-04-29 15:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][19]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, continuing to progress towards its "Five-Year Plan" [2][19]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [4][19]. - The company aims to enhance its core business and improve profitability, with a target of doubling net profit over five years [19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other businesses was 9.755 billion, 79 million, and 1.153 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 26.87% in 2023, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [6][19]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, up 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 4.23%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [6]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 11.647 billion, 12.345 billion, and 13.086 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 540 million, 659 million, and 795 million yuan [19][22]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.62, 0.76, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 11 [19][22].