CNNP(601985) 华源证券·2024-04-29 15:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 749.6 billion, a 5.2% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 106.2 billion, a 17.9% YoY increase [1] - In Q1 2024, revenue was RMB 179.9 billion, a 0.5% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 30.6 billion, a 1.2% YoY increase, slightly below expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.195 per share (tax included) for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.2% [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's new energy installed capacity increased significantly, with 6GW added (1.7GW wind, 4.2GW solar), contributing to a 67% YoY increase in net profit for CNNC Huineng to RMB 2.94 billion [1] - Management and financial expenses decreased by RMB 790 million and RMB 840 million respectively in 2023, while other income increased by RMB 600 million, boosting profitability [1] - In Q1 2024, new energy generation increased by 63% for wind and 58% for solar, offsetting a 3.1% decline in nuclear power generation due to increased maintenance [1] Growth Prospects - The company plans a capital expenditure of RMB 121.6 billion in 2024, with an estimated 8-10GW of new energy capacity additions [1] - As of Q1 2024, the company has 14.3GW of new energy capacity under construction (3.3GW wind, 11GW solar), with 4.5GW newly started in Q1 [1] - The company has 15 nuclear power units under construction or approved, with 1 unit expected to be operational in 2024, 1 in 2025, 2 in 2026, 4 in 2027, and 1 in 2028 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 114.15 billion in 2024, RMB 124.83 billion in 2025, and RMB 132 billion in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 7.5%, 9.4%, and 5.7% respectively [1] - The current PE ratios are 16x, 14x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively (excluding perpetual bonds) [1] - Assuming a 35% dividend payout ratio, the dividend yields for 2024-2026 are projected to be 2%, 2.2%, and 2.4% respectively [1]