TKGF(601233) 东吴证券·2024-04-30 01:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance showed significant year-on-year growth, with revenue reaching 21.1 billion yuan, up 33% YoY and 1% QoQ, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 580 million yuan, up 218% YoY and turning from a loss to a profit QoQ [3] - The company's long fiber production and sales increased significantly, with production and sales volumes of 3.14 million tons and 2.59 million tons respectively, up 1.21 million tons and 670,000 tons YoY [3] - The company's PTA and MEG price differences remained stable, with MEG benefiting from industry inventory reduction [3] - The company's investment income from joint ventures and associates increased to 250 million yuan in Q1 2024, driven by improved profitability of Zhejiang Petrochemical [4] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.2 billion yuan, 4.4 billion yuan, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.1x, 7.3x, and 6.3x [4] Financial Performance - The company's 2024E operating income is forecasted to be 99.436 billion yuan, up 20.32% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.191 billion yuan, up 300.41% YoY [2] - The company's 2025E operating income is forecasted to be 99.587 billion yuan, up 0.15% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.411 billion yuan, up 38.22% YoY [2] - The company's 2026E operating income is forecasted to be 100.996 billion yuan, up 1.41% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.108 billion yuan, up 15.79% YoY [2] - The company's 2024E EPS is forecasted to be 1.32 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 10.10x [2] Industry and Market Analysis - The polyester long fiber industry maintained high operating rates, with a production rate of 90.9% as of April 25, 2024, and inventory days of 33.5/26.3/27.9 days for POY/FDT/DTY respectively [3] - The downstream weaving industry's operating rate was 72.4% as of April 25, 2024, with raw material inventory at 9.73 days, showing a downward trend since the post-holiday resumption of work [3] - The overseas apparel inventory reduction process is progressing well, with US wholesale apparel inventory at $30.3 billion as of February 2024, down 21% YoY, and the inventory-to-sales ratio at 2.34, down 0.64 from the peak [3] Financial Projections - The company's 2024E total assets are forecasted to be 104.085 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 66.078 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders of 37.662 billion yuan [10] - The company's 2025E total assets are forecasted to be 112.094 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 70.832 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders of 40.873 billion yuan [10] - The company's 2026E total assets are forecasted to be 116.878 billion yuan, with total liabilities of 71.856 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders of 44.580 billion yuan [10] - The company's 2024E operating cash flow is forecasted to be 7.559 billion yuan, with investment cash flow of -1.849 billion yuan and financing cash flow of -5.712 billion yuan [11]