GOODWILL(SH:688246) GF SECURITIES·2024-04-30 01:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.44 CNY per share based on a 45x PE valuation for 2024 [5][36]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was under pressure, primarily due to external regulatory impacts on hospital procurement activities, resulting in a revenue decline of 3.0% year-on-year to 700 million CNY and a net profit drop of 37.5% to 42.5 million CNY [2][11]. - External regulatory pressures have largely eased, leading to a recovery expectation for Q1 2024, where revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year to 120 million CNY, and net loss narrowed by 47.7% compared to the previous year [3][21]. - The company is actively upgrading its electronic medical record (EMR) and data center products, achieving significant progress in specialized EMR, with notable revenue growth in emergency medical platforms [28][29]. - The company is exploring AI applications in healthcare, having developed a medical model that supports nearly 20 medical tasks and has become the largest shareholder of Ande Medical Intelligence [29][32]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 Financial Data: - Revenue: 700 million CNY, down 3.0% YoY - Net Profit: 42.5 million CNY, down 37.5% YoY - Gross Margin: 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY [11][21]. - 2024 Q1 Financial Data: - Revenue: 120 million CNY, up 14.0% YoY - Net Loss: 11.85 million CNY, loss narrowed by 47.7% YoY - Gross Margin: 47.2%, up 2.2 percentage points YoY [3][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 840 million CNY, 1.0 billion CNY, and 1.19 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to be 80 million CNY, 130 million CNY, and 170 million CNY for the same years [32][35]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.57 CNY, 0.93 CNY, and 1.24 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [35]. Product and Market Development - The company has made significant advancements in its EMR products, assisting 31 medical institutions in achieving high-level certifications by the end of 2023, and has upgraded its emergency medical platform, generating substantial revenue growth [28][29]. - The company is also focusing on AI in healthcare, with a strategic investment in Ande Medical Intelligence, enhancing its capabilities in medical imaging and clinical decision support [29][32]. Cost and Margin Outlook - The gross margin is expected to remain high and gradually increase, projected at 52.6%, 53.3%, and 53.6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [33]. - The company anticipates a decrease in sales expense ratio due to improved revenue, with projections of 15.0%, 14.5%, and 14.0% for the next three years [34].