2024一季报点评：一季度税金影响业绩，开局奠定优良基础

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy (Maintain)" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that Guizhou Moutai's revenue for Q1 2024 was slightly above expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18.11% to 457.76 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 15.73% to 168.96 billion yuan, primarily affected by an increase in tax rates [19] - The company has raised the factory price of its Moutai liquor by an average of approximately 20%, which is expected to support its annual performance targets [8] - The report highlights that the revenue growth for Moutai liquor remains steady, while the growth rate for series liquor has temporarily slowed due to high base effects from the previous two years [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,256.20 million [2] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 174,073 million yuan, 201,077 million yuan, and 232,656 million yuan respectively [2] - Net profit projections for the same period are 86,817 million yuan, 101,782 million yuan, and 119,034 million yuan respectively [2] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 24.7x for 2024, 21.0x for 2025, and 18.0x for 2026 [8] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92% over the next few years [11]