SCIE(SH:600546) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-30 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanmei International (600546) [1][3] - The target price is set at 21.96 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][3] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in production and sales, leading to lower-than-expected performance in Q1 2024 [1] - The annual production target for 2024 remains at 3,300 million tons, despite the challenges faced [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal in Q1 2024 was 662 CNY per ton, down by 136 CNY per ton year-on-year [1] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 60% in 2024, reflecting a strategy to retain profits for resource acquisition [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 6.356 billion CNY, a decrease of 40.31% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 583 million CNY, down 65.81% [1][6] - The company's coal production in Q1 2024 was 929.5 million tons, a decline of 29.3%, with self-produced coal sales volume dropping by 43.74% [1][6] Production and Sales - The significant drop in production and sales is attributed to the reduction of capacity at the Hequ mine and strict regulatory policies in Shanxi province [1] - The company aims to maintain its coal production target for 2023 at the same level as the previous year, despite the challenges [1] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the price decline in the second quarter will narrow as electricity demand recovers [1] - The company is expected to consider increasing resource acquisition in 2024, given the high market prices for coal [1]