门店扩张加速，中期成长逻辑延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to high gold prices affecting demand for gold jewelry and short-term sales of non-gold categories being constrained by economic weakness. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 68.7 billion, 77.2 billion, and 85.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 12.4%, and 11.2% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 4.3 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.4%, 10.5%, and 10.2% respectively. EPS is projected at 0.49, 0.54, and 0.59 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.7, 11.5, and 10.4 [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.14%, and a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan, up 157.23%. However, profit performance was below expectations due to lower-than-expected performance in the women's bag business and a goodwill impairment of 0.39 billion yuan. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 1.796 billion yuan, a 17.87% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 0.131 billion yuan, a 5.47% increase, which was in line with expectations [2][5]. Margin and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in Q1 2024 was 24.92%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 7.35%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin is attributed to changes in product structure, including an increase in the proportion of traditional gold jewelry and a rise in the share of one-price gold in fashion jewelry. Despite this, the expansion of the franchise model has led to lower expense levels, which is beneficial for profit margins [2][5]. Store Expansion and Growth Logic - In 2023, the company accelerated its store expansion, opening a net of 241 new stores, representing a 20.8% year-on-year increase. The number of self-operated stores decreased by 50, while franchise stores increased by 291. The current low base of stores and the rapid expansion of the franchise model are expected to drive revenue growth [2][5].