Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.36 CNY per share based on a current price of 15.28 CNY [14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 928 million CNY in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.49%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 9.27% to 204 million CNY [7]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased depreciation and interest expenses from the Fushan Phase II project, which was partially completed in 2023 [7]. - The company has significantly reduced capital expenditures, enhancing its high dividend capability [7]. - The processing volume of primary waste in Guangzhou has shown consistent growth, with a 5.33% increase in Q1 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 [7]. - The company aims to improve its capacity utilization and profitability through the internal growth of primary waste and contributions from landfill projects [7]. Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for the company are expected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2024 to 5,024 million CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 7.4%, 13.8%, and 12.7% respectively [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 735 million CNY in 2024 to 1,425 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 2.7%, 25.2%, and 23.3% respectively [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.82 CNY in 2024 to 1.58 CNY in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 19 to 10 [9]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 518 million CNY in Q1 2024, a significant increase of 50.75% year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash receipts from sales [7]. - The company has maintained a high overall power generation efficiency, with a reported generation of 538.45 kWh per ton in 2023 [7]. - The company plans to actively advance projects related to the excavation and disposal of aged waste, which is expected to contribute positively to future earnings [7].
2024年一季报点评：资本开支显著降低，产能利用率提升确定性强