GONGNIU(SH:603195) Changjiang Securities·2024-04-30 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability, driven by internal procurement and lean cost management. The traditional business model shows strong growth potential, supported by deep manufacturing and channel barriers, alongside continuous product innovation. The new strategic business has also shown substantial growth, particularly in the new energy sector, which is expected to continue doubling. A new round of equity incentive plans has been announced to support long-term growth [2][6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 15.695 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.870 billion yuan, up 21%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.703 billion yuan, increasing by 28%. In Q4 2023, revenue reached 4.088 billion yuan, with a 13% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.057 billion yuan, up 28% [6][7]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.803 billion yuan, a 14% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 929 million yuan, up 26% [6][7]. Business Segments - The company’s traditional business, particularly in wall switches and lighting, has outpaced industry growth, with wall switch revenue growing at double-digit rates due to a favorable competitive landscape. The lighting segment is expected to grow even faster as the company captures market share [6][7]. - The new energy business has seen a remarkable growth of 149% in 2023, reaching 380 million yuan, with simultaneous promotion in both consumer and operator markets. The growth trend is expected to continue into 2024 [6][7]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin improved by 5.2 percentage points in 2023, with net profit margins also increasing. The improvement is attributed to internal cost management and product upgrades. In Q1 2024, the gross margin continued to rise, reflecting ongoing operational efficiency [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its traditional business and new strategic initiatives. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.467 billion yuan for 2024, 5.153 billion yuan for 2025, and 5.927 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding valuations of 23.3, 20.2, and 17.5 times [7][8].