AIA(01299) 光大证券·2024-04-30 03:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 57.3 [1][21]. Core Insights - The new business value reached a quarterly high of USD 1.33 billion in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% (fixed exchange rate) and 26.9% (actual exchange rate) [3][17]. - The annualized new premium was USD 2.45 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, while total weighted premium income was USD 11.22 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3][17]. - The company has optimized its capital management policy, targeting a payout ratio of 75% of the annual free surplus net income, with an additional USD 2 billion added to the share buyback plan, bringing the total to USD 12 billion [6][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The report shows relative performance of 1.8% over 1 month, -22.0% over 3 months, and -20.4% over 1 year, with absolute performance of 9.0%, -11.6%, and -31.1% respectively [1]. Market Data - The total share capital is 1.1238 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of HKD 643.936 billion. The stock price has ranged from HKD 45.25 to HKD 86.8 over the past year [4]. New Business Value - The new business value in the Hong Kong market grew by 43% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by strong local and MCV business performance [3][5]. - The company achieved double-digit growth in new business value across all reported segments, indicating robust recovery momentum post-pandemic [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to generate net profits of USD 4.839 billion, USD 5.571 billion, and USD 6.277 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.6%, 15.1%, and 12.7% [10][22]. - The projected PEV for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.19, 1.12, and 1.04 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [22]. Capital Management - The company plans to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a total expected return of USD 2.9 billion based on the 2023 free surplus net income [6][15].