Microsoft(US:MSFT) Great Wall Securities·2024-04-30 03:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported a revenue of $61.858 billion for Q3 FY2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.03%, and a net profit of $21.939 billion, up 19.89% year-over-year [10][11]. - The Intelligent Cloud segment achieved revenue of $26.708 billion, growing 20.95% year-over-year, driven by a 31% increase in Azure and other cloud services [11]. - The company continues to integrate AI across its business segments, enhancing productivity and efficiency for clients [10][16]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2022A, Microsoft reported total revenue of $198.27 billion, with a net profit of $72.738 billion. Projections for FY2023A show revenue increasing to $211.915 billion, with a slight decline in net profit to $72.361 billion [4]. - The forecast for FY2024E anticipates revenue of $243.978 billion and net profit of $87.228 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 15.13% for revenue and 20.55% for net profit [4][16]. - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $14 billion in Q3 FY2024, a 79.49% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong commitment to cloud and AI investments [2][10]. Business Segment Performance - The Productivity and Business Processes segment, including Dynamics products and cloud services, saw a revenue growth of 19%, contributing to an overall segment growth of 11.73% with total revenue of $19.570 billion [2]. - The More Personal Computing segment generated $15.580 billion in revenue, up 17.50% year-over-year, with Windows revenue increasing by 11% [12]. - GitHub Copilot has reached 1.8 million subscribers, marking a 35% quarter-over-quarter growth, and nearly 30,000 enterprise users are utilizing Copilot Studio [2]. Future Outlook - Microsoft expects Q4 FY2024 Intelligent Cloud revenue to be between $28.4 billion and $28.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 19%-20% [2][16]. - The company projects continued growth in net profit for FY2024-2026, estimating $87.228 billion, $101.394 billion, and $119.253 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 34 to 25 [16].