BYD(01211) 招银国际·2024-04-30 02:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD with a target price of HKD 262.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of HKD 216.40 [1][9]. Core Insights - Despite a lower-than-expected net profit of RMB 4.6 billion in Q1 2024, the automotive manufacturer is still projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 33.1 billion for FY24E. The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q1 2024 exceeded expectations, indicating resilience despite recent price cuts [9]. - The report anticipates a 20% sales growth for FY24, supported by recent stimulus measures and overseas expansion, which may help maintain the gross profit margin [9]. - The report suggests that BYD may need to exercise more discipline in SG&A and R&D expenses in the coming quarters to prioritize profitability [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 700,048 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. For FY25E and FY26E, revenues are expected to reach RMB 800,518 million and RMB 884,971 million, respectively [3][16]. - Net profit for FY24E is projected at RMB 33,109 million, reflecting a 10.2% increase from FY23. The net profit for FY25E and FY26E is expected to be RMB 40,173 million and RMB 45,095 million, respectively [3][16]. - The report indicates a gross profit margin of 20.1% for FY24E, with slight declines expected in subsequent years [3][16]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow for FY24E is projected at RMB 115,522 million, with significant capital expenditures of RMB 98,955 million anticipated [5]. - The net cash position is expected to fluctuate, with cash at year-end projected to be RMB 99,000 million for FY24E, increasing to RMB 214,258 million by FY26E [5][24]. Profitability Metrics - The report highlights a gross profit margin of 20.1% for FY24E, with operating profit margin expected to be 6.0% [3][16]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.9% for FY24E, indicating strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [16][25].