M&G(SH:603899) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-04-30 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with strong growth in retail large stores and online channels, leading to a positive outlook for the next five years under its new strategic plan [2][3] - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability and stable growth in its traditional core business [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.49 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2024 was 380 million yuan, with an EPS forecast of 1.98/2.28/2.63 for 2024-2026 [2][5] - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 20.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from writing tools, student stationery, office supplies, and office direct sales in Q1 2024 was 5.6 billion, 8.5 billion, 9.0 billion, and 29.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 17.1%, 6.4%, and 11.6% [4] - The online channel revenue (Morningside Technology) reached 250 million yuan, growing by 32.7%, while the retail large store business generated 370 million yuan, up by 23.5% [4] - The office direct sales business (Keli Pu) saw revenue of 29.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.6%, indicating short-term pressure but potential recovery with economic improvement [4] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.685 billion, 32.363 billion, and 37.246 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.6%, 16.9%, and 15.1% [5][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.834 billion, 2.115 billion, and 2.434 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 20.1%, 15.4%, and 15.0% [5][9]