2024年1季报点评：逐步企稳

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 12.8 CNY [2][3] Core Views - The company's profitability, although declining year-over-year, has shown signs of recovery compared to 2023 [2] - Q1 2024 land investment was cautious, with a land acquisition ratio maintained above 90% [2] - The overall construction pace has accelerated in 2024, with asset turnover improving [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 49.75 billion CNY, a 24.5% year-over-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.3% to 2.22 billion CNY [2] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 declined by 3.2 percentage points year-over-year but increased by 2.6 percentage points compared to 2023, reaching 18.6% [2] - Net profit margin attributable to shareholders in Q1 2024 decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year but rose by 1.0 percentage point compared to 2023, reaching 4.5% [2] Land Acquisition and Development - In Q1 2024, the company acquired 4 projects in Tianjin, Xi'an, and Taiyuan, with a total investment of 5 billion CNY, a 73% year-over-year decrease [2] - Land acquisition area in Q1 2024 was 590,000 square meters, a 35% year-over-year decrease [2] - Land investment intensity dropped from 16% in Q1 2023 to 8% in Q1 2024 [2] Construction and Development Plans - New construction in Q1 2024 reached 2.83 million square meters, accounting for 16% of the annual plan (10% in Q1 2023) [2] - Completed construction in Q1 2024 was 5.42 million square meters, accounting for 16% of the annual plan (12% in Q1 2023) [2] - The annual completion plan for 2024 has been reduced by 16%, while the new construction plan has increased by 21% [2] Financial Forecasts - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 0.95, 1.01, and 1.10 CNY, respectively [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 323.551 billion, 323.406 billion, and 333.560 billion CNY, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.330 billion, 12.131 billion, and 13.140 billion CNY, respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 9.28 CNY [3] - 52-week price range: 7.90-14.76 CNY [4] - Market capitalization: 111.086 billion CNY [4] - P/E ratio for 2024E: 9.80 [5] - P/B ratio for 2024E: 0.54 [5] - Dividend yield for 2024E: 4.2% [5] Industry and Company Overview - The company operates in the real estate and financial sectors [3] - It is a large enterprise group focused on real estate development and sales, with a national first-class real estate development qualification [6] - The company has a strategic layout covering 60 major cities across China, including the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Rim regions [6]