Changjiang Securities·2024-04-30 05:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5][4] Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.807 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.306 billion, a slight increase of 0.25% [4][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 7.9 billion, 9.1 billion, and 10 billion respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 19, 16, and 15 times at the current stock price [5][6] Revenue Analysis - The revenue from Hainan offshore duty-free sales was under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 24% to 12.8 billion, while the number of shoppers decreased by 5% and average spending per customer fell by 21% [5][4] - The increase in sales from port duty-free stores helped mitigate some of the revenue decline, attributed to the recovery of international flights and the number of visa-free countries [5][4] Profitability Improvement - The company improved its gross margin by 4.31 percentage points due to product structure optimization and an increase in high-margin products, although the sales expense ratio rose by 2.98 percentage points [5][4] - The net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in profitability despite rising costs [5][4] Market Outlook - The company is expected to face a seasonal downturn in the Hainan market, and uncertainties regarding the 2025 Hainan closure may pressure market sentiment [5][4] - The company is positioned to achieve steady growth through its first-mover advantage in channel positioning, product diversification, and scale procurement [5][4]