2024年一季报点评：短期压力加剧，调整以待企稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) has been downgraded to "Neutral" [1][36]. Core Views - The company is facing intensified short-term pressures due to weak demand and increased competition in the dairy industry. The expectation is for operational stability to return in the second half of the year [36]. - Revenue for Q1 2024 is projected to show slight growth driven by the consolidation of Xinong, despite overall revenue pressures. The company’s revenue is expected to be impacted by weak demand recovery and high competition [36]. - The company is actively addressing challenges by implementing strategies such as culling cattle to reduce losses in the dairy segment and enhancing product development to differentiate in the market [36]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,714 million, with projections of 2,825 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 142 million in 2023 to 116 million in 2024, indicating a decrease of 18.7% [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.36 in 2024, down from 0.44 in 2023 [11]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2024 is reported at 16.4%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high feed costs and increased promotional activities [36]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 53.73%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [2].