2023年报和2024一季报点评：收入低于预期，24年稳中求进

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.1 yuan [14][48]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.207 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.62%. However, the revenue for Q4 2023 was 875 million yuan, showing a decline of 0.82% year-on-year, and Q1 2024 revenue was 895 million yuan, with a growth of 9.28% year-on-year [14][47]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [14]. - The growth in revenue was driven by a significant increase in the number of distributors, which rose by 1,020 to a total of 3,250, contributing to a 31.6% revenue increase. However, the growth rate is expected to stabilize at 10-15% in 2024 due to a reduction in external demand and increased competition [14][29]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 37.1% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 16.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [14][47]. - For Q1 2024, the gross profit margin decreased to 36%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and changes in product mix [14]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60 yuan for 2024, 0.69 yuan for 2025, and introduces a forecast of 0.79 yuan for 2026 [14][47]. Revenue and Profit Growth Rates - The revenue growth rate for 2023 was 31.6%, with projections of 13.5% for 2024, 12.9% for 2025, and 12.2% for 2026 [47]. - The net profit growth rate for 2023 was 54.2%, with expected growth rates of 17.1% for 2024, 14.5% for 2025, and 13.4% for 2026 [47]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on internal growth and channel optimization, with plans to enhance its market presence in rural areas and expand into new markets [14][29]. - The strategy includes a "Thousand He Enters Thousand Villages" initiative to increase distribution in rural areas, aiming to maintain a steady growth trajectory despite external challenges [14].