Kouzijiao(603589) 民生证券·2024-04-30 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 40.98 yuan [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable performance in 2023, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.962 billion yuan and 1.721 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16.10% and 11.04% [1][2]. - The "Jian" series product launch has significantly contributed to the growth in both volume and price of high-end liquor, with high-end liquor revenue increasing by 16.58% year-on-year [1]. - The company aims to achieve "three upgrades": market upgrade to double sales, structural upgrade to enhance the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, and brand upgrade to become the leading brand in the high-end liquor segment [2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 75.19%, with a net profit margin of 28.87% [2][6]. - The company reported a decrease in the dividend payout ratio to 52.29% from 57.76% in 2022 [1]. - For 2024, the company forecasts net profits of 1.973 billion yuan, 2.213 billion yuan, and 2.563 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating growth rates of 14.6%, 12.1%, and 15.9% [2][6]. Revenue Breakdown - The liquor business generated revenue of 58.49 billion yuan in 2023, with contributions from volume growth of 7.43% and price growth of 7.61% [1]. - The revenue from high-end liquor accounted for 97.08% of total liquor revenue, with significant volume and price increases attributed to the "Jian" series [1][2]. - The company has seen an increase in the number of distributors, with 496 in the province and 466 outside the province as of Q1 2024 [1].