GUJING(SZ:000596) Guoyuan Securities·2024-04-30 07:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% in the next six months compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 20.25 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.18%, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 46.01% [2]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed continued growth, with revenue reaching 8.29 billion yuan, a 25.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, up 31.61% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 51.83% [2]. Revenue and Business Structure - In 2023, the company’s revenue from different segments was 19.64 billion yuan from liquor, 84 million yuan from hotels, and 531 million yuan from other businesses, with respective growth rates of 21.47%, 45.53%, and 8.82% [3]. - The premium product line, particularly the aged liquor, showed significant growth, with revenue of 15.42 billion yuan, a 27.34% increase [3]. - The company’s sales volume for liquor was 118,300 tons, a 3.16% increase, with an average selling price of 166,000 yuan per ton, up 17.75% [3]. - Revenue from online and offline sales was 19.52 billion yuan and 729 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.25% and 19.48% [3]. Profitability and Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin and net margin improved in 2023, with net profit margin at 23.34% and gross margin at 79.07%, reflecting increases of 3.88 and 1.90 percentage points, respectively [4]. - For Q1 2024, the net profit margin reached 25.65%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80.35% [4]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 5.83 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 8.82 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.08%, 23.88%, and 22.16% respectively [4][5].