Ligao Foods (300973) 民生证券·2024-04-30 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.499 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.22%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 73 million yuan, a significant decline of 49.21% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company is expected to see a substantial recovery in net profit, with projections of 265 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 263.5% [4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new products, particularly in the frozen baking segment, which achieved a revenue of 2.211 billion yuan in 2023, up 23.93% year-on-year [4]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with a notable increase in revenue from supermarkets and innovative channels such as restaurants and new retail, which have nearly doubled year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 31.39%, with a slight improvement to 32.59% in Q1 2024 due to better capacity utilization and lower procurement costs [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.037 billion yuan, 4.588 billion yuan, and 5.151 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.7%, and 12.3% [4][14]. - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 265 million yuan, 311 million yuan, and 369 million yuan, with growth rates of 263.5%, 17.3%, and 18.4% respectively [4][14]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS), expected to rise from 0.43 yuan in 2023 to 1.57 yuan in 2024, 1.84 yuan in 2025, and 2.18 yuan in 2026 [4][15]. Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 85 in 2023 to 23 in 2024, 20 in 2025, and 17 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [4][15]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 2.5 in 2023 to 2.4 in 2024, 2.2 in 2025, and 2.1 in 2026 [4][15]. - The report notes a projected return on assets (ROA) of 1.85% in 2023, increasing to 6.32% in 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) of 2.95% in 2023, rising to 10.20% in 2024 [6][14].