CNCB(601998) 光大证券·2024-04-30 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a current price of 6.88 CNY [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has significantly improved due to a low base effect, while the increase in impairment provisions has negatively impacted profit growth. In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 53.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.19 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4][5] - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2024 was 12.57%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The year-on-year growth rates for operating revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2024 were 4.7%, 5.6%, and 0.2%, respectively. The growth rates for operating revenue and pre-provision profit improved by 7.3 and 10.9 percentage points compared to 2023, while the net profit growth rate decreased by 7.7 percentage points [5] - Net interest income and non-interest income saw year-on-year growth rates of -4.5% and 27.6%, respectively, with improvements of 0.2 and 25 percentage points compared to 2023 [5] Loan and Deposit Structure - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a slight decrease in loan growth, primarily due to a decline in bill financing. Corporate loans remained dominant, while mortgage loan issuance showed signs of recovery [5][6] - The company added 256 billion CNY in retail loans in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 105 billion CNY, with mortgage loans increasing by 156 billion CNY [5] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q1 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance was 65.64 billion CNY, with an NPL ratio of 1.18%, unchanged from the beginning of the year. The coverage ratio for provisions was 207.8%, indicating a strong risk mitigation capacity [7][11] - The company's capital adequacy ratios improved, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 9.69%, up 69 basis points from the beginning of the year [8][12] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.56 CNY per 10 shares for 2023, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 28%. The current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.2% [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 68.77 billion CNY, 71.59 billion CNY, and 74.10 billion CNY, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.54, 0.50, and 0.46 for the same years [9][8]