SDIC Power(SH:600886) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-30 09:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see stable dividends in 2023, with positive growth in Q1 2024 and an anticipated improvement in water inflow in Q2 2024 [3]. - The revenue for 2023 is projected at 56.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 64.4% year-on-year [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower in Q1 2024 is 0.318 yuan/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 is 56,712 million yuan, with a net profit of 6,705 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.90 yuan [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 1.14 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively, with a target price raised to 18.24 yuan based on a 16x PE ratio for 2024 [3][5]. Operational Insights - Hydropower generation in Q1 2024 was 21.3 billion kWh, down 8.4% year-on-year, while thermal power generation increased by 17.9% to 14.3 billion kWh [3]. - The company’s thermal power units account for 64.0% of its total installed capacity, primarily located in economically developed coastal areas [3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.49 yuan per share for 2023, with a payout ratio of 55.0%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 113.68 billion yuan, with a current share price of 15.25 yuan [5][10]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 11.63 to 15.92 yuan [10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio for 2023 is 16.95, with projected ratios of 13.42 for 2024 and 13.17 for 2025 [4]. - The dividend yield for 2023 is 3.2%, expected to be 3.0% in 2024 and increase to 4.6% by 2025 [4].