hbky(SH:600985) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-30 09:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of 23.76 [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with a focus on growth in coking coal [2]. - The report indicates that while coal production and sales have declined, a recovery in growth is anticipated in Q3 [2]. - The company has started to contribute incremental growth, with expectations for continued increases in dividends post-2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 173.22 billion, a decrease of 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.225 billion, down 24.7% [2]. - The average selling price per ton of coal was 1,176 yuan, with a cost of 593 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 584 yuan per ton [2]. - The company expects the market price of coking coal to rise, which could drive performance recovery [2]. Production and Sales - The coal production in Q1 was 523.6 million tons, down 7.7%, while sales were 402.6 million tons, down 21% [2]. - The report notes that the decline in sales was less than the drop in production, attributed to accounting measures [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in its ethanol business, with expected production reaching 660,000 tons by 2026 [2]. - The report highlights strong certainty in performance growth for 2024 and beyond, driven by reduced capital expenditures and sustained profit increases [2]. Dividends - The company has shown a consistent upward trend in dividend rates, with estimates suggesting further increases post-2024 [2].