SCSF(SH:600779) Southwest Securities·2024-04-30 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.95 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, and a net profit of 1.27 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, revenue reached 1.36 billion yuan, a significant increase of 51.3% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 53.2% to 250 million yuan [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.15 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [2] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year [2] - The company successfully completed its growth plan for 2023, focusing on product upgrades, brand premiumization, and marketing breakthroughs [2] - The company aims to maintain growth in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with strategies to enhance brand positioning and expand market share [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's high-end liquor revenue was 4.67 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, while mid-range liquor revenue was 200 million yuan, a substantial increase of 64.1% [2][9] - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 83.2%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 25.6%, down 0.4 percentage points [2][9] - For Q1 2024, the gross margin was 80.5%, with a net profit margin of 20.0%, reflecting a 1.3 percentage point increase [2][9] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 3.01 yuan, 3.50 yuan, and 4.04 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [2][9] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 14.3%, 15.1%, and 13.9%, respectively [3][9] Market Strategy - The company plans to focus on enhancing its presence in key markets and increasing the number of high-quality distributors [2] - The strategy includes optimizing organizational structure and improving sales personnel capabilities to strengthen competitive advantages [2] Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer confidence and economic conditions, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor market [2]