NHD(SZ:002946) Southwest Securities·2024-04-30 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 19.3% [1][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% growth, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 46.9% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the liquid milk segment generated 9.76 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 11.2% year-on-year, supported by a strong product development strategy [2]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points, attributed to lower raw milk prices and optimized product mix [3]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 4%, showing a 0.4 percentage point improvement [3]. Strategic Planning - The company has outlined a strategic plan for 2023-2027, aiming for double-digit revenue growth and a doubling of net profit margin, focusing on organic growth supplemented by acquisitions [4]. - The product strategy emphasizes low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, targeting a compound annual growth rate of no less than 20% for high-end fresh milk over five years [4]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel is expected to be the primary growth driver, with a target revenue contribution of 30% by 2027 [4]. Financial Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 570 million yuan, 710 million yuan, and 840 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.66 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.97 yuan [4][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are 15x, 12x, and 10x, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][6].